Who’s going to be showered in Oscar glory in 2014? Will Steve McQueen and Chiwetel Ejiofor make history with 12 Years a Slave? Will Alfonso Cuarón and Sandra Bullock be over the moon with Gravity? Or will American Hustle bluff its way to victory?
With the clock ticking down to Sunday night’s ceremony, we’re going to predict the major winners, sorting out the dead certs and the close calls … and revealing the films and stars who would win if we had our way.
Best Film American Hustle Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street
This year’s Best Film contest is a three-horse race. American Hustle and Gravity lead the field in terms of nominations with 10 apiece, but the Academy’s traditional reluctance to reward comedies may see David O Russell’s con-artist caper go away empty-handed. By contrast, Gravity will almost certainly be the night’s big winner overall, although most of its gongs are likely to come in technical categories. Which leaves 12 Years a Slave. Steve McQueen’s harrowing film ticks all the right boxes. It’s a prestige film that tackles a historically important subject and boasts outstanding performances across the board. Gravity’s momentum may just tip things on the night, but Hollywood custom dictates that this Oscar will go to 12 Years a Slave.
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Will win: 12 Years a Slave Should win: 12 Years a Slave Who’s missing: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Director David O Russell – American Hustle Alfonso Cuarón - Gravity Alexander Payne – Nebraska Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
Gravity and 12 Years a Slave go head to head again, with American Hustle the outsider. Hollywood likes to be seen making history, which will give extra votes to Steve McQueen, who would be the first black director to win an Oscar. But his failure to win a Bafta a fortnight ago suggests that this award will go to Alfonso Cuarón.
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Will win: Alfonso Cuarón Should win: Steve McQueen Who’s missing: Paul Greengrass
Best Actor Christian Bale- American Hustle Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club Bruce Dern - Nebraska Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor won this year’s Bafta - but he had home-team advantage and his big Oscar rival, Matthew McConaughey, wasn’t even in the field. Over in LA, things will be different. McConaughey isn’t quite the dead cert Daniel Day Lewis was last year, but the Oscar should still be in the bag.
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Will win: Matthew McConaughey Should win: Matthew McConaughey Who’s missing: Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Best Actress Amy Adams - American Hustle Meryl Streep - August: Osage County Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine Sandra Bullock - Gravity Judi Dench - Philomena
Cate Blanchett’s tour-de-force performance as Blue Jasmine’s self-deluding socialite has made her the front-runner here for months, although the child sexual-abuse scandal surrounding Woody Allen may put off some voters. With five nominations in nine years, Amy Adams is surely due an Oscar… but not this year.
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Will win: Cate Blanchett Should win: Cate Blanchett Who’s missing: Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks)
Best Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper - American Hustle Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Barkhad Abdi’s heart-warming personal story - from Somali refugee to limo driver to Hollywood star - gives him a shot here. As does his recent Bafta win. In London, however, as with Chiwetel Ejiofor in the Best Actor category, he wasn’t up against one of the cast of Dallas Buyers Club. This one goes to Leto.
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Will win: Jared Leto Should win: Jared Leto Who’s missing: Daniel Brühl (Rush)
Best Supporting Actress Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle Julia Roberts - August: Osage County Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine June Squibb - Nebraska Lupita Nyong’o - 12 Years a Slave
This is by far the closest category to call. Jennifer Lawrence’s brilliant performance in American Hustle certainly deserves the gong - but Silver Linings Playbook won her an Oscar only last year and the Academy may be reluctant to give her back-to-back awards. Her Bafta win counts in her favour, and Hollywood undoubtedly loves her, but the votes may turn out in favout of 12 Years a Slave’s Lupita Nyong’o. That said, my hunch is that Lawrence will do the double.
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Will win: Jennifer Lawrence Should win: Jennifer Lawrence Who’s missing: Scarlett Johansson (Her)
And the other Oscars go to:
Original Screenplay Will win: Her
Adapted Screenplay Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Animation Will win: Frozen
Foreign Film Will win: The Great Beauty
Documentary Will win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Score Will win: Gravity
Original Song Will win: 'Let it Go' (Frozen
Cinematography Will win: Gravity
Editing Will win: Gravity
Production Design Will win: The Great Gatsby
Costume Will win: The Great Gatsby
Make-up Will win: Dallas Buyers Club
Visual Effects Will win: Gravity
Sound Mixing Will win: Gravity
Sound Editing Will win: Gravity
Animated Short Will win: Get a Horse
Documentary Short Will win: The Lady in Number 6
Live Short Will win: The Voorman Problem
